Coca-Cola × REBORRN · the innovation gates
How an idea travels, from concept to shelf.
Follow the line through the decision gates, and the work between them. We track one example the whole way, so the same deliverable and the same measures become more detailed and more certain as they move.
Innovation Bankalways on
Stage 1build concepts
Gate 1chooseOU Prioritization
Stage 2build bundleE2E Solution Bundle
Gate 2proveApproval of Bundle
Stage 3craft launchCraft Launch Plan
Gate 3signDecision to Launch
Stage 4launchMarket Execution
In marketscore
Scope of this iteration: this version runs the full process end to end, Stage 1 through Stage 4, covering all the work between stages and gates. The final piece of the journey will be completed in a next iteration.
Reading the scores
on track at or above the bar for the gate
watch below the bar, being worked
to learn an open question about a result already in hand, carried to the next gate
to define same dashed style as “to learn”, different meaning: no bar has been set yet for this measure
committed a locked, signed fact, no longer something being tracked against a target
TBD placeholder on numeric measures and on the D · S · F · V pillar scores; real thresholds, calibrated per OU × category × innovation type, will replace it as the model matures
Scroll right to travel
This page shows the Gate View. The full stage-by-stage journey is available to authorized reviewers.
Ideate Stage 1Phase 1 · leads to Gate 1, the Innovation Bank, always on what's new vs current
This is exactly what a Proof of Concept looks like.
Concepts are built continuously and kept in a shared bank. Every one answers the same six E2E Bundle elementsfour E2E Bundle elements, three questions each. Here is ours, filled in.
8 Consumer Benefit PlatformsCategory Innovation CorridorsAI agentsWorkshopsPartnersInno daysFlavor housesPitchesSystem-wide workshops
The output · a Proof of Concept, the six E2E Bundle elementsfour E2E Bundle elements, three questions each
The bank, four in flightClick a concept to preview it, Smartwater Glow is the one worked through in full below.
Smartwater Glow
Concept Highlights
Consumer in focus
Consumer tension: “I want my hydration to do more than quench thirst. I want it to work for how I look, not just how I feel.”
Meaningful, what’s in it for me: Hydration that shows up on my skin, not just how I feel, so one drink does double duty in my routine instead of adding a step.
Different, why this over other choices: The only beauty-hydration entrant with a clinically-backed dose you can see working, not just an ingested claim you have to take on faith.
Salient, the moment it comes to mind: The morning mirror moment: reaching for hydration that also shows up on your skin, right as self-care and the commute overlap.
The Solution
Smartwater Glow
The first drink that fully hydrates you, pausing aging inside out, only the way Smartwater can do. RTB a clinically-backed hyaluronic-acid dose, visible hydration from within.
“Glow from the source. Nature in your skin, in every sip.”
Audience: Health-conscious, beauty-curious adults 25–40, already buying premium water, already investing in visible self-care. Desired growth audience ∼12.0M, the benefit-area pool, unconstrained ceiling from OpportunitySpace · BEACH need-states, sized the same way as the Europe benefit-platform work, before any brand or format decision.
Innovation strategy: New users, a beauty-hydration occasion that pulls new-to-brand consumers in, not a frequency play on the existing Smartwater base. Sourced from new-to-category demand, not cannibalising core Smartwater; estimated reach is modelled as audience size × brand credibility × liquid acceptance × affordability.
Need State: Refresh.
Benefit platform: Beauty-from-within hydration, part of the Skin & Radiance Consumer Opportunity Platform.Beauty.
Occasion: The morning routine moment, when self-care and the commute overlap (mirror, gym bag, desk).
Innovation territory: Hydration Glow.
Pricing check: Indexes ~15% above the premium-water category average (illustrative: ~$2.20 vs. ~$1.90 per 500ml); tests whether the HA claim justifies the step-up versus mainstream.
Competitive Set: Functional-water and beauty-hydration whitespace, illustrative whitespace index ~60; no direct ingested-HA competitor at scale today, nearest adjacent set is premium electrolyte and collagen-water entrants.
E2E Bundle
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
Sensorial description of the liquid: Clean, light taste, hydrating electrolytes, a real skin benefit. hypothesis
Hero ingredient & proof: Hyaluronic acid, at a clinically-backed dose. hypothesis
Feasibility & claim: Feasible; a US skin-hydration claim viable with a disclaimera skin-hydration claim viable with a disclaimer across the Top 15+3 priority markets. hypothesis
Feasibility tag: New-to-brand (Smartwater stretch), new-to-category (beauty-hydration occasion).
Packaging & VIS
Shelf standout: Distinctive botanical design, stands out in the water aisle. hypothesis
Hero pack format: 330ml slim can for trial, premium glass for repeat, designed to catch the eye and invite a first try. hypothesis
Visual world: Soft greens, sage palette, ingredient-forward photography. hypothesis
Brand & Comms
Brand carrier: Smartwater, a core stretch within its hydration credibility. hypothesis
Idea or line: “Glow from the source. Nature in your skin, in every sip.” hypothesis
Occasions:Consumer touchpoints: Morning-ritual moments: mirror, gym bag, desk refuel. hypothesis
Creative platform: New platform (not an extension of an existing persistent platform).
CommercialCommerce
First-win channel: Premium grocery hydration aisle, plus gym and e-retail. hypothesis
Tier & price: Premium tier, indexed above the premium-water set. hypothesis
Pricing check: Indexes above the premium-water category average; tests whether the HA claim justifies the step-up versus mainstream, see Gate 1 measurements for the specific index.
Category & customer growth case: Opens a beauty-hydration space, new-to-category, see Gate 1 measurements for the growth estimate. hypothesis
Sourcing & incrementality read: New-to-category sourcing, not cannibalising core Smartwater; est. reach = audience × brand credibility × liquid acceptance × affordability. human read needed
Early Sellability read: Directional customer/system excitement and brand/strategic fit; early bottler reaction captured as an input, not a sign-off.
Top 15+3 market interest: Some priority markets have flagged interest so far; informational only, Gate 1 stays an OU-level call, see Gate 1 measurements for the count.Germany, Poland, UK have flagged interest so far, informational only, Gate 1 stays an OU-level call, see Gate 1 measurements for the count.
OU interest: EU (Germany, Poland, UK) and LATAM (Mexico) have flagged early interest; informational only, Gate 1 stays an OU-level call.
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Investment calculated · target state
Investment intensity, rough order: Estimated MEDIUM on the Investment Intensity scale, off category-average CDE and media for a stretch launch; no committed budget yet.
Calculated, not entered: Brand Idea (Stretch, Smartwater core extension) + Benefit Complexity (avg of ingredient novelty and claim complexity) + Audience Size → Score, mapped to the MEDIUM band above. Not an attribute, a calculation over three of the E2E Bundle elements.
Bottler co-investment likely? Unknown at this stage; flagged as a question for Gate 1.
New equipment or pack tech implied? None flagged; existing capability assumed.
Business Case calculated · target state
Addressable audience target state
~6.5M, refined by this concept's business decisions: brand credibility × liquid acceptance × affordability × channel access · not yet modelled for this concept specifically
Global, high-level business case: Not produced at PoC today; the global team already builds an equivalent view for the LRP, alignment on this pending with the team.
Volume, rough estimate: Drinker ceiling and volume sized off category benchmarks (the Opportunity Sizing calc); not yet modelled for this concept specifically.
Calculated, not entered: Business Opportunity Sizing = Audience × Affordability × Competitive factor, read off the Audience and Competitive Set context above, not typed in by a team.
NSR, rough estimate: Not yet modelled; category-benchmark NSR range only, to refine at Bundle.
Margin & cost basis: Category COGS ceiling of ≤$1.90/UC assumed; no Foundry model yet.
Payback view: Too early for a modelled figure; category ballpark points to ~Year 3, pre-market, to refine at Bundle.
Top 15 markets, heat-mapped
High · medium · low read across the Top 15 priority markets, replacing a two-named-market example with the full read. Full per-market build-out deferred to the LRP and Q4 sprint.
Germany
Poland
UK
US
Mexico
France
Spain
Australia
Japan
Brazil
Italy
Philippines
South Africa
India
Turkey
High
Medium
Low
PoC references
Reference bundles from the latest EU Sprint, first slide shown here, click any card to open the full PDF.
Where it comes from: an always-on engine, fed by opportunity platforms, culture, science and competition, on a yearly token budget. The one gap to fix is a single, machine-readable bank.
Gate 1 · choose itOU Prioritization
Choose between the PoCs, and back the ones that best deliver the plan.Look across the global PoC bank, and back the ones that best deliver the plan.
A portfolio call, not four PoCs judged in a vacuumA global portfolio call, not four PoCs judged in a vacuum
Every PoC in the global bank is plotted on the same two axes: fit to the LRP’s named growth bets, and fit to the category’s Innovation Corridors. PoCs compete against each other here, only the top-right quadrant gets chosen and sequenced this cycle.the focus is on Category growth corridors and Growth Bets, only concepts strong on both get chosen and sequenced this cycle.
Category Innovation Corridor fit
Smartwater Glowchosen
Fuze Tea, Light Blue Balance
Glowing Skin Formula
Fanta LavenderFit to the LRP’s named growth bets
Sequence now
On corridor, not this cycle
Reassess the corridor
Deprioritise
What this gate produces: not a physical thing, the decision itself, the Chosen Bet that moves forward into the Bundle stage.
You produce
The output · the chosen bet
Smartwater Glow chosen at G1
The first drink that fully hydrates you, pausing aging inside out, only the way Smartwater can do. RTB a clinically-backed hyaluronic-acid dose, visible hydration from within.
Tension “I want my hydration to do more than quench thirst, I want it to work for how I look.”
Also considered, not sequenced: Fanta Lavender (lower urgency), Fuze Tea Light Blue Balance (adjacent, not core), Glowing Skin Formula (new to portfolio, parked).
MEASUREMENT
How we measure · D · S · F · V · OU-level readstate: predicted
D · Desirability
Threshold: TBD
Purchase intent (Top Box) on track
No threshold set yet → synthetic read, directional · 4 in 5 say they'd try it, strongest among existing premium-water buyers already investing in skincare
Frequency to learn
No threshold set yet → synthetic read, directional · expected ~2×/month occasion fit, untested against the real liquid
How to improve watch
No threshold set yet → weakest driver: need fit, 3.9 / 5 relevance score · taste and repeat intent untested pre-liquid
value proposition reads 76% compelling on the HA claim; relevance is where the story is least proven
Recommended approaches AI concept screening · Synthetic consumer assessments · Qualitative exploration
S · Sellability
Threshold: TBD
Consumer story to learn
No threshold set yet → not testable pre-bundle · plausible story only, directional price index ~15% above category (~$2.20 vs ~$1.90/500ml), beauty-hydration growth lever ~4%, price positioning unconfirmed
is the benefit easy to understand for consumers, does the price hold against the ladder, and does it build retailer margin; real read needs scaled NielsenIQ and Foundry price-ladder data, carried to Gate 2
Distribution to learn
No threshold set yet → not testable pre-bundle · deferred to Gate 2
Space on shelf to learn
No threshold set yet → not testable pre-bundle · deferred to Gate 3
Priority market interest informational
Germany, Poland, UK → 3 of 18 Top 15+3 markets6 of 18 Top 15+3 markets, informational only, Gate 1 stays an OU-level call
Source Commercial · price ladder, where available
F · Feasibility
Threshold: TBD
Manufacturing complexity watch
Threshold: TBD → at the ceiling, 3 / 5
Claim, regulatory path on track
clear path → US clearclear across the priority OUs screened so far
Scale, bottle & distribute on track
no stopper → line available
Source GDI · regulatory scan
V · Viability
Threshold: TBD
Gross margin on track
Threshold: TBD → ~62%
Business case on track
Threshold: TBD → at ceiling
NSR not modelled yet, category benchmark only; the full P10/50/90 NSR view starts at Gate 2
Source Foundry engine, modelled at OU level
Minimum to pass Gate 1Real signal today is Desirability and Viability, both read at OU level with the consumer nuance folded in above, though Desirability here is a synthetic / AI read only. flagged Real consumer validation is not yet run and needs to be planned before Gate 2, not assumed complete on the strength of the synthetic read. Feasibility is expert-assessed. Sellability is a plausible story, an open question carried to Gate 2, not a blocker. No team is resourced until through this gate, so the ask is a chosen concept and a brief, not a business case.
Unlocks & releasesTime, budget and the team to build the bundle, plus the brief. Effort, not launch money.
Develop Stage 2Phase 2 · leads to Gate 2 the work happens here
Build the bundle.
A cross-functional team, brand, GDI, commercial and agency, turns the chosen concept into a complete solution. One rule from the brief guides it all: protect the edge, fix the gaps.
Smartwater Glow
What it includes
The same sixfour elements, now built end to end into the E2E Bundle: a real liquid, a finished packa protocept, a finished pack guide, the brand story and comms, an investment envelope and a business case, instead of separate answers on paper. The consumer thread carries forward too: the same audience and tension, sharpened with real claims and numbers.
Consumer in focus
3 priority marketsAudience, carried from PoC: Health-conscious, beauty-curious adults 25–40, already buying premium water, already investing in visible self-care. Desired growth audience ∼12.0M, the benefit-area pool, unconstrained ceiling, unchanged from PoC.
Tension, sharpened: “I want my hydration to do more than quench thirst, and now I can prove it works, not just claim it.” Must-haves: clinically-backed HA claim, stable at ambient shelf-life, premium-tier price held.
Audience, sized in priority markets: Germany: ∼1.8M in target segment. Poland: ∼0.9M in target segment. UK: ∼1.4M in target segment. Sized off BEACH need-states × premium-water penetration, the same three markets carried in Priority markets interest below.
Launch Projection
Estimated execution timeline: 3 months.
Estimated launch date in the UK market: Q2 2027.
E2E Bundle, being built
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
The real liquid to taste, a protocept: benchtop, lab-scale, dose and claim moving into test.The real liquid to taste, made at pilot scale, dose and claim moving into test.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: Sensorial — clean, light taste, hydrating electrolytes, real skin benefit. Hero ingredient — hyaluronic acid, clinically-backed dose.
GDI
Packaging & designPackaging & VIS
The finished pack, ready for consumer test.The finished pack guide, the finished look and feel, ready for consumer test, not yet run on a bottler line. VIS in the selected brand, with multiple pack formats.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: Shelf standout — distinctive botanical design. Hero pack format — 330ml slim can (trial), premium glass (repeat). Visual world — soft greens, sage palette.
IMX + Design Studio
Creative Strategy & CommsBrand & Comms
Audience segmentation and sizing, the E2E Connection Architecture and the Core Creative Idea, illustrated with 2–3 representative POCs.Audience segmentation and sizing, the E2E Connection Architecture, the Core Creative Idea and the 4XP Assets, built out end to end.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: Brand carrier — Smartwater core stretch. Idea/line — “Glow from the source. Nature in your skin, in every sip.” Occasions — morning-ritual moments, mirror, gym, desk.
IMX/OpenX
Product shot
Pack & creative cues
Brand book
“Unlock Your Glow”
4XP Assets
Stored online
E2E Connection Strategy
Connections architecture
Go-to-market & selling storyCommercial
Go-to-market direction and the customer selling story.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: First-win channel — premium grocery, gym, e-retail. Tier & price — premium tier, indexed above the premium-water set. Category & customer growth — opens a beauty-hydration space, new-to-category, see Gate 1 measurements for the growth estimate.
CCL
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Investment calculated · in progress
Real media plan drafted, cross-checking the Gate 1 MEDIUM investment-intensity flag.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: Bottler co-investment — still an open question, flagged at Gate 1. New equipment — none flagged, existing capability assumed.
Innovation Hub
Business Case calculated · in progress
Addressable audience in progress
~6.5M, modelled off the real bundle test · brand credibility × liquid acceptance × affordability × channel access · P50 volume within 10% of the PoC estimate
Top-line P&L assessed: BOM, COGS, DME and a first NSR range modelled; CapEx and ROI ballparked at ~Year 3 payback.
Carried from PoC, unchanged: Volume — sized off category benchmarks (Opportunity Sizing calc). Payback view — category ballpark, ~Year 3.
Innovation Hub
First cut, open for discussion
An existing creative platform, brief the local/regional team. New brand territory, activate IMX globally first, then localise.
Confirmed at this stage
Production location
Central, one-for-all
Priority markets interest
Germany, Poland, UK — confirmed by GM
CapEx
Creative platform, validated
Claims’ clarity 3.2/5
Clear functional benefit, but lacks clarity on occasion.
Package + VIS 4/5
Strong VIS with distinctive cues.
MEASUREMENT
How we’ll be measured at Gate 2 · D · S · F · Vstate: benchmark
D · Desirability
Purchase intent (Top Box), pre-use benchmark
Threshold: TBD
Purchase intent (Top Box), after-use benchmark
Threshold: TBD
Frequency to define
No threshold set yet → calibrated by category × geography, same basis as purchase intent
How to improve to define
No threshold set yet → taste and repeat intent, to be tested with the real liquid
Recommended approaches Comms optimization · Product testing · Claims testing · Message testing · Design evaluation
S · Sellability
Consumer story to define
No threshold set yet → is the benefit easy to understand for consumers, does the price hold, premium tier vs the category ladder, and does it build retailer margin
Distribution benchmark
%ACV ramp target agreed, scored at Gate 2
Space on shelf benchmark
set, scored at Gate 3, not before
F · Feasibility
Manufacturing complexity benchmark
Threshold: TBD
Claim, regulatory path benchmark
a clear path, per market
Scale, bottle & distribute benchmark
no stopper on the bottler line
V · Viability
Gross margin benchmark
Threshold: TBD
Business case benchmark
Threshold: TBD
NSR range modelled directionally; the full P10/50/90 view starts at Gate 2
The same D · S · F · V questions set at Gate 1, now the bar the bundle is built against. Gate 2 tests each one for real.
The one big thing
Between Gate 1 and Gate 2, you now need to make the product. Only after Gate 1 does a team get resourced and does real budget start moving, before that, it was just ideas.
Gate 2 · prove itApproval of Bundle
Prove the bundle. Not every one passes.
The six E2E Bundle elementsfour E2E Bundle elements from the PoC are now built and answered. Decision-makers evaluate the integrated bundle, the product, pack, price, investment and business case, and the end-to-end comms tested as one solution, not a deck. This is a filter: only the strongest bundles proceed, so weaker ones can be stopped before much is spent.
You produce
The output · the end-to-end (E2E) Bundle, the same six elementsfour elements, the same questions, now answered
E2E Bundle, validated
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
- Is the liquid superior?Yes, taste tests ahead of the category average, with a clear skin-benefit read, see the Desirability measurement below for the score. validated
- Hero ingredient, and the proof?Hyaluronic-acid dose clinically validated in the bundle test. validated
- Can we make it and claim it?Protocept validated at benchtop scale; full production scale-up confirmed at Gate 3Made on the line at pilot scale; NAOU clear, UK (EU OU) wording in rework. validated
Packaging & VIS
- Is it picked off the shelf?Shelf standout, distinctive against the water set, see the Desirability measurement below for the score. validated
- What is the hero pack?330ml slim can and glass confirmed feasible on the bottler line. validated
- What is the visual world?Botanical, sage palette validated with consumers. validated
Brand & Comms
- Which brand carries it?Smartwater core stretch validated; credibility holds for the benefit. validated
- What is the idea or line?"Glow from the source" resonates against the tension, see the Desirability measurement below for the score. validated
- Where do we meet people?Morning-ritual touchpoints confirmed: mirror, gym, desk. validated
CommercialCommerce
- Where does it win first?Premium grocery lead channel decided over gym and e-retail. validated
- What tier or price?Premium tier held; demand curve tested across the band. validated
- Why do category & customer grow?Incremental beauty-hydration story holds, see the Sellability measurement below, Consumer story row, for the score. validated
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Investment
- Is the investment sized?Yes. Media plan quoted, cross-checked against the Gate 1 MEDIUM investment-intensity flag; bottler co-investment conversation opened.
- Any new capability required?No new equipment; existing bottler lines confirmed sufficient.
- Assets in hand?Core creative assets produced and tested ahead of media spend.
Business Case
- Does the volume estimate hold?Yes, modelled off the bundle test; P50 volume within 10% of the PoC estimate, net of the AI-modelled cannibalisation.
- What's the margin & payback?Gross margin 61%, payback estimated Year 3, per the Foundry model.
- Is this a real P&L bet now?Yes, not a generic commerce line: modelled P&L, P10/50/90 NSR, demand curve replacing a single price assumption, per the Monte Carlo model, ready for the Gate 2 hurdle.
MEASUREMENT
Global readOU read · D · S · F · Vstate: validated
D · Desirability
Threshold: TBD
Purchase intent (Top Box), pre-use on track
Threshold: TBD → 33%
Purchase intent (Top Box), after-use (incl. product test) on track
Threshold: TBD → 55%, no barrier found
reads product strength on what matters most in the category, plus repeat and recommendation intent
Frequency to learn
No threshold set yet → not yet modelled · usage-frequency read scheduled with the real bundle test, ahead of Gate 3
How to improve watch
No threshold set yet → weakest driver: believability · EU claim wording rework, carried to Gate 3
reads relevance, differentiation, believability, need-fit, across product, comms, messaging and design together
Liquid superiority, taste test on track
3.9/5 vs 3.4 category average, clear skin-benefit read
Idea / line resonance on track
“Glow from the source” resonates 4.1/5 against the tension
Shelf standout on track
3.7/5, distinctive against the water set
Source Integrated bundle validation, incl. sensory
S · Sellability
Threshold: TBD
Consumer story on track
clear & differentiated, price held, margin ≥ category norm → 64/100 clarity read, premium tier held with demand curve tested, strong retailer margin
is the benefit easy to understand for consumers, does the price hold against the ladder, and does it build retailer margin; price and margin folded in here, not scored separately
Distribution on track
≥ category ACV norm → on track
Space on shelf to learn
No threshold set yet → not scored at Gate 2 · deferred to Gate 3
Source System economics · customer soundings
F · Feasibility
Threshold: TBD
Manufacturing complexity on track
de-risked → stability confirmed
Claim, regulatory path watch
no red in a committed market → NAOU clear, UK (EU OU) wording in rework
Scale, bottle & distribute on track
feasible → bottler line confirmed
Source GDI · regulatory · bottler
V · Viability
Threshold: TBD
Gross margin on track
Threshold: TBD → 61%
Business case on track
clears hurdle → P50 NSR $2.7M
P10 / 50 / 90 view
Source Foundry · Monte Carlo
Unlocks & releasesThe shaping budget and the bottler's commitment, plus the brief to craft the market launch plan.
Local read · D · S · F · V, a market lensexample: UK
The same D · S · F · V, re-asked with a market lens. The bundle just passed above on a category average, a synthetic, global read. Before it launches anywhere, each market re-asks the same questions against its own consumers, its own competitors, its own shelf. Local read shown by default; click below to see the global read each row was compared against.
D · Desirability
Threshold: TBD
Will consumers try this? watch
No threshold set yet → 7 in 10Global 4 in 5 say they’d try it
holds up locally, slightly softer than the global synthetic read
Is the value proposition compelling? watch
No threshold set yet → 68%, vs. local functional-water brandsGlobal 76% rate the HA claim compelling
gap: claim lands less sharply against strong local competitors
Does the concept address a meaningful need? on track
No threshold set yet → 3.6 / 5, vs. the UK’s hydration categoryGlobal 3.9 / 5 relevance
How does it read against the strongest local competitor? to learn
No threshold set yet → Ahead of Volvic Touch of Fruit on trial intent, ties on price perceptionGlobal not asked, no named competitor at that read
What are the largest unknowns? watch
No threshold set yet → Price elasticity vs. local functional-water brands, untestedGlobal taste and repeat intent, untested pre-liquid
Source Global synthetic read · local consumer read, UK
S · Sellability
Threshold: TBD
Selling story, consumers to learn
No threshold set yet → Plausible locally, benefit reads clearly against the local hydration setGlobal plausible story only, real read needs scaled NielsenIQ
Selling story, customers to learn
No threshold set yet → Builds incrementality vs. local water & functional setGlobal plausible story only, real read needs Foundry price-ladder data
Price positioning vs. the ladder to learn
No threshold set yet → Premium tier, above the local functional-water ceilingGlobal directional only, premium tier, unconfirmed
Retailer economics watch
No threshold set yet → Below category norm, margin ask from lead retailers still openGlobal not scored at Gate 1
Source Commercial, global price ladder · UK commercial, local price ladder
F · Feasibility
Threshold: TBD
Manufacturing complexity on track
2 / 5 on the UK bottler lineGlobal threshold ≤ 3/5, at the ceiling
Claim, regulatory path watch
Rework needed on HA claim wordingGlobal threshold clear path, NAOU clear
Scale, bottle & distribute on track
UK line confirmedGlobal threshold no stopper, line available
Local approval timeline to learn
No threshold set yet → Claim rework adds an estimated 6–8 weeks before launch-readyGlobal not applicable, no single market timeline
Source GDI, global regulatory scan · local regulatory scan & bottler, UK
V · Viability
Threshold: TBD
Cost of Goods Sold ceiling on track
At ceiling, local input costs tracking the global modelGlobal threshold within category, at ceiling
Gross margin, directional on track
~58%Global threshold ≥ 50%, ~62%
FX & local pricing exposure to learn
No threshold set yet → GBP/USD volatility could compress margin a further 2–4pts, not yet hedgedGlobal not modelled per market
Source Foundry engine, global · local Foundry read, UK
Market Launch Prep Stage 3Phase 3 · leads to Gate 3 the work happens here
Craft the launch plan.
Shape the approved bundle for real markets: bottler capability, pack formats, price points, media, distribution. Design everything, produce nothing yet. Nothing is produced at this stage, so the plan can still be stopped.
Smartwater Glow
What it includes
Turning the proven bundle into a market-specific plan: CapEx offers, DME sizing, volumetrics, distribution targets and the customer pre-sell, everything signed, nothing locked yet.
Consumer in focus
3 priority marketsAudience & tension, carried from Bundle: Same beauty-curious, premium-hydration audience; same tension, now with a validated HA claim rather than a hypothesis. Desired growth audience ∼12.0M, the benefit-area pool, unconstrained ceiling, unchanged since PoC.
Must-haves, from Bundle: The must-haves that must be included, not renegotiated locally: clinically-backed HA claim, ambient-shelf stability, premium-tier price. Claim, sharpened: “Clinically shown to support skin hydration from within.” Price: $2.20/500ml, ~15% above category. Margin: ~59% GP, within the Gate 2 model.
Audience & price, per market: Germany: 1.8M target segment, €2.10/500ml, claim runs unmodified. Poland: 0.9M target segment, 9.20 PLN/500ml (local premium-tier index), claim adapted for local substantiation rules. UK: 1.4M target segment, £2.15/500ml, claim rework in progress per the Gate 2 UK local read.
Launch Projection
Execution timeline: 6 weeks. ready to launch
Launch date in the UK market: 12 May 2027. validated
E2E Bundle, market-ready
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
The team secures CPS timelines, works with the bottler on necessary line upgrades and assesses bottler capability for full-scale production, and finalises the bill of materials and cost of goods sold.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: Liquid superior — validated by taste test against the category, see Gate 2 measurements above for the score. Hero ingredient — hyaluronic-acid dose, clinically validated.
Packaging & VIS
Artwork is being finalised and locally adapted for local regulations and language, marketing claims, and vis adjusted across every pack format relevant to each market, can and bottle alike.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: Shelf standout — distinctive against the water set, see Gate 2 measurements above for the score. Hero pack — 330ml slim can and glass, holding consumer interest and trial appeal; production feasibility confirmed separately in Gate 2 measurements.
Can lifestyle shot
Product photography
Can artwork
Spec guide
Bottle artwork
Packaging guide
Brand & Comms
The core creative idea is locally amplified to selected connection points. DME sizing fully builds the funded media plan, engaging local influencers and local asset development.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: Brand carrier — Smartwater core stretch, validated. Idea/line — “Glow from the source”, validated, see Gate 2 measurements above for the resonance score. Occasions — morning-ritual touchpoints confirmed: mirror, gym, desk.
Toolkit contains: CCI · 4XPs Strategy & Assets · Influencer Partnerships · Legal/Royalties note · Media Strategy.
“Unlock your glow”
OOH billboard
“Don’t buy this water”
OOH billboard
“Care you can reach”
Digital · social
“Every skin tells a story”
Social creative
CommercialCommerce
The team is building local customer selling stories, volumetrics, distribution targets, shopper activation plans and pricing, including price elasticities versus competition.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: First-win channel — premium grocery, lead channel decided over gym and e-retail. Tier & price — premium tier held, demand curve tested.
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Investment input · committed
Marketing levers (media, trial activity, influencers) and commercial levers (in-store investment, out-of-shelf displays): fully funded. CapEx quote confirmed; DME sizing locked into the funded media plan.
Benchmark, carried from Gate 2: the calculated Investment Intensity read (MEDIUM, off category-average CDE and media) is now the target this figure is checked against, not the source of it.
Feeds forward: this committed figure, $18.2M Year-1, entered as a real committed figure, not calculated, now directly drives Addressable Audience and the P&L in Business Case, below, the calculated logic upstream stops here.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: No new equipment required, existing bottler lines confirmed sufficient.
GM + Bottler
Business Case calculated · modelled
Addressable audience modelled
~6.7M, recomputed off the committed $18.2M Investment input above, plus brand credibility × liquid acceptance × affordability × channel access
up from 6.5M at Gate 2, the confirmed CapEx and locked media plan bought slightly more reach than the calculated benchmark assumed; the P&L above is recomputed on this figure, not the Gate 2 one
NSR, volume and margin broken down by market, see the UK build-out below.
Carried from Gate 2, unchanged: Gross margin and P50 NSR, per the Foundry & Monte Carlo model, both refined below for the UK build-out.
GM + Bottler
Business case, built out · UK
NSR
$1.0M (UK) (UK's share of the $2.9M combined DE+PL+UK view)
Volume
0.45M unit cases (UK's share, refined from the Gate 2 P50)
COGS
$1.86/UC (within the $1.90 ceiling)
DME
$150K (funded media plan)
OPEX
$70K (distribution & activation)
GP
~58%
Numeric distribution
72% ACV target (grocery + online)
Cannibalisation, AI-modelled
−3.2% vs. core Smartwater (synthetic model, calibrated to the UK market-level re-check · driver: Smartwater Classic, UK)
Volume, net of cannibalisation
0.4356M unit cases (0.45M gross, less the AI-modelled −3.2%)
System ROI
On track for the ~Year 3 payback, per the Gate 2 model
Shopper XP
Picture of Success
Off-shelf, cross-aisle secondary display anchored by the botanical-glow VIS, plus a clip-strip cross-sell into the beauty aisle.
Full concept & assets →
Full concept & assets →
Owner
IMX, carried from Bundle so it isn’t lost before launch
Who's involved
Provides input Bottler & supply, trade & commercial, local regulatory
Does the work Market-led team (lead market)
Decides, day to day Lead Market GM, Hub Lead co-signs
Production-line trial
milestone · before Gate 3What it proves: The liquid, dose and pack run at full production scale on the actual bottler line, not just bench or pilot conditions, catching any make, fill or pack issue before the launch commitment at Gate 3.
Result: Trial run completed; formulation and fill parameters confirmed stable at scale, no line stopper found.
Feeds into: The Gate 3 Product & Liquid answer (“formulation locked and scaled on the production line”) and the Cost of Goods Sold quote from suppliers.
Who signs off: GDI, with bottler quality.
The one big thing
Between Gate 2 and Gate 3, real money gets committed to full launch materials. Once it's locked in, nobody kills a plan you've already invested millions in, so this is the last easy exit.
Gate 3 · sign itDecision to Launch
Commit the launch.
The same six E2E Bundle elementsfour E2E Bundle elements, once more, now committed facts. Quoted, signed, contracted, cleared. The business case is no longer a projection; it is a commitment.
You produce
The output · the Launch Plan, the same six elementsfour elements, the same questions, now committed
E2E Bundle, committed
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
- Is the liquid superior?Formulation locked and scaled on the production line. committed
- Hero ingredient, and the proof?Claim legally cleared per committed market. committed
- Can we make it and claim it?Cost of Goods Sold quoted by suppliers. committed
Packaging & VIS
- Is it picked off the shelf?Artwork approved and production-ready. committed
- What is the hero pack?Bottler capacity contracted for can and glass. committed
- What is the visual world?Line changeover scheduled. committed
Brand & Comms
- Which brand carries it?Smartwater carry signed off. committed
- What is the idea or line?Creative produced from the validated idea. committed
- Where do we meet people?Funded media plan committed; touchpoints booked. committed
CommercialCommerce
- Where does it win first?Trade terms signed for the lead channel. committed
- What tier or price?Price locked in the premium tier. committed
- Why do category & customer grow?Sell-in covers the %ACV ramp. committed
- How much shelf space, and is it cold?Facings agreed by channel; cold-availability commitment signed where relevant. committed
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Investment
- Is the investment committed?Marketing levers (media plan) contracted and funded; commercial levers (bottler co-investment) signed.
- Any new capability required?No; existing bottler lines confirmed and scheduled.
- Assets in hand?Creative assets produced and cleared for media.
Business Case
- Is the business case locked?NSR, margin and payback signed off at the committed volume, net of cannibalisation.
- What’s the margin & payback?Gross margin 61%, payback Year 3, per the funded model.
- CapEx & funding?CapEx approved; launch investment released.
MEASUREMENT
How we measure · D · S · F · Vstate: committed
D · Desirability
Threshold: TBD
Answers to any risk remaining open from Gate 2 committed
risk resolved → EU claim wording rework, carried from Gate 2 · reworked and cleared, per Feasibility
per the Desirability framework, Gate 3 is Launch Readiness: all major uncertainties should have been addressed by now, so the emphasis shifts from exploration to confirmation, not a retest of Gate 1/2 evidence
Source Feasibility sign-off, claim wording · integrated bundle validation carried from Gate 2
S · Sellability
Threshold: TBD
Consumer story committed
clear & differentiated, price held → signed off, price locked in the premium tier, retailer terms confirmed
Distribution committed
Threshold: TBD → signed to 30% ACV
Space on shelf committed
signed
Source Commercial · bottler
F · Feasibility
Threshold: TBD
Manufacturing complexity committed
full-scale runs → running
Claim, regulatory path committed
cleared, lead market
Scale, bottle & distribute committed
bottler signed
Source Line runs · legal · bottler contract
V · Viability
Threshold: TBD
Gross margin committed
Threshold: TBD → 61%
Business case committed
Threshold: TBD → Year 3, downside funded
P50 NSR $2.7M signed off at the committed volume
Source Supplier quotes · Foundry
Unlocks & releasesThe launch investment, CapEx, media, production, ingredients, plus the execution brief and the ten targets.
Execute Stage 4Phase 4 · leads to market the work happens here
Up to six months to launch
Produce and launch.
Now production and spend begin. Shoot the film, print the pack, book the media, order the ingredients. Most launches land pre-season or post-season.
Smartwater Glow
What it includes
Turning the signed plan into real spend: production, ingredient supply, media booking and distribution build. Nothing here is reversible; this is the first real read of whether the earlier bets were right.
E2E Bundle, in-market
The key E2E Bundle elements feed Investment and Business Case, below, which are calculated, not entered directly.
Product & Liquid
Ingredient supply ordered, full production runs under way.
Carried from Gate 3, unchanged: Formulation locked and scaled on the production line. Claim legally cleared per committed market. Cost of Goods Sold quoted by suppliers.
Packaging & VIS
Pack printed, line changeover complete.
Carried from Gate 3, unchanged: Artwork approved and production-ready. Bottler capacity contracted for can and glass. Line changeover scheduled.
Brand & Comms
The film shot, media booked and going live.
Carried from Gate 3, unchanged: Smartwater carry signed off. Creative produced from the validated idea. Funded media plan committed, touchpoints booked.
CommercialCommerce
Distribution build, shelves stocked ahead of launch.
Carried from Gate 3, unchanged: Trade terms signed for the lead channel. Price locked in the premium tier. Sell-in covers the %ACV ramp. Facings agreed by channel, cold-availability commitment signed where relevant.
Pack Tech & Equipment
To be added in a next version
Who's involved
Provides input Data & Analytics, field teams & trade, Central Marketing Innovation
Does the work Market teams + bottler with GDI
Decides, day to day Lead Market GM + bottler, in flight
The one big thing
Between Gate 3 and market, the plan becomes real spend with no way back, production, media and ingredients are all committed. This is the first real read of whether the earlier bets were right.
In market · score it journey ends here · Gates 4 & 5, next session
The market responds. Read the results, and act.
At week 13, the first full 13-week retail-data quarter, a standard Nielsen/IRI scan-data reporting period, the actuals land against the signed plan. The read shows which E2E Bundle element to improve, and feeds back so the next choice at Gate 1 is better informed.
Trial behind? → Brand & Comms attribute, the messaging
Repeat behind? → Product & Liquid attribute, revisit the liquid
Shelf standout behind? → Packaging & VIS attribute
Distribution behind? → Commercial attribute
Smartwater Glow, week 13Trial is ahead, repeat is behind. That points to Product & Liquid, not Brand & Comms, so sustain-phase media waits until the liquid is improved. Then Gate 4 iterates and Gate 5 scales or retires. (Gates 4 and 5 get their own session.)
The portfolio view · fewer survive at every gate
10
Concepts surfaced
this LRP cycle, 3 bets
this LRP cycle, 3 bets
3
Chosen at Gate 1
one per bet
one per bet
1
Signed at Gate 3
Smartwater Glow
Smartwater Glow
Illustrative, this cycle. Not every chosen concept clears Gate 2, that is the filter working as intended.
Two more stops, if you want them: what this actually looks like day to day, and what has to be true before any of it runs on live data.
What this looks like · a day in the life of a marketer live prototype, not a mock
This is where a marketer actually lives, inside the Inno Hub.
Everything on this map so far is the framework. Below is the interface it runs inside, live and clickable, not a screenshot. Home, an open project, its gate tracker, the Proof of Concept with the real visual references, the Bundle with what's confirmed and what's still in progress, the six E2E Bundle elements including Investment and Business Case, the project wiki and the Nudge Agent's message board. Click through it the way a marketer would.
inno-hub-wireframe-prototype.html
How to read it: only Smart Water Hydro Beauty is wired up end to end, everything else in the sidebar is a placeholder marked "Soon," so the depth is real on one project rather than shallow on six.
Before it's real · what has to be true first the honest part
What it takes to make this real, not just click-through.
The framework and the interface above are the destination, not the current state. Getting there needs a handful of things to be true first. None of them are built yet, this is the honest part, following the July 28 working session.
Foundry as the engine
The scoring, the D·S·F·V reads and the Nudge Agent all need to run on top of Palantir Foundry, with MCP exposure so agents can read and write it. That connection doesn't exist today.
A data infrastructure layer
Gate 1 prioritization, Gate 2 bundle proof and Gate 3 launch plan all need a shared data layer under them. Pieces of it exist already, NielsenIQ, BEACH, Kantar, none of it is wired into one place yet.
Creative scoring tools, confirmed
Kantar Link AI and similar synthetic-consumer tools need to be confirmed working with Foundry before any of the Desirability scoring shown here can automate. Automation can't proceed until that's tested.
The Innovation Bank, for real
A structured place where every concept ("plant") lives, the always-on source the Proof of Concept above says it's pulled from. It doesn't exist as a system today, it's a name for a spot on this map.
Where this lives, and who builds it
Open question, not yet answered: a landing page, a sub-domain, something inside a tool already in use? Built internally, or with an external partner? Both need a decision before build starts.
A minimum viable path, meanwhile
Even without Foundry live, a lighter version is possible: representative expert inputs, sales data and photos connected via API, as a starting point while the fuller build catches up.
Bottom lineEverything you just clicked through is a real, considered design. None of it is running on live data yet, that gap is the next conversation, not a footnote to this one.
